US$2500/oz gold arousing appetites for gold stocks
US$2500/oz gold arousing appetites for gold stocks
Investors are showing renewed interest in the gold space and are lining up to attend the 36th Gold Forum Americas (GFA) and 14th Precious Metals Summit (PMS) in Colorado in September. The run-up to the conferences could not be better in many ways: the gold price is holding comfortably above $2400/oz, having hit $2500/oz, and a large M&A transaction is underway.
The GFA, which many people continue to refer to the Denver Gold Forum, will be held on 15-18 September at the Broadmoor in Colorado Springs, while the Precious Metals Summit will be held at the Hyatt in Beaver Creek, on 10-13 September. Mining Journal will report on both events, including company and market updates.
"There has been a change in the market status. There has been disappointment about the performance of gold equities versus the gold price. That has turned around, and we are seeing companies really gaining leverage, with their results bearing that out because companies have maintained discipline," Tim Wood, Denver Gold Group (DGG) executive director, told Mining Journal. DGG members are cash-flowing producers, royalty companies and some of the more robust and better-financed juniors
The sector is abuzz with Gold Fields announcing in early August that it intends to buy Osisko Mining for $1.6 billion in cash to obtain full ownership of the Windfall development project in Quebec. The shares of several other development-stage gold juniors, such as Skeena Resources and Perpetua Resources, jumped 10-15% on the day the deal was announced, as investors sought to position in the companies that may be next to receive M&A bids. "It is a gigantic deal and is not so overwhelming that it would cause Gold Fields difficulty swallowing it. Kudos to Gold Fields for being willing to do that and use some of the cash they have piled up," said Wood.
In addition to the expanding margins of most producers due to the higher gold price, several new large mines in Canada have come on stream in the past year or are about to, such as Greenstone, Cote and Magino in Ontario, and Blackwater in British Columbia.
"It is significant that a number of companies have transitioned and achieved commercial production or first gold pours. It is good to see projects advance and reach those stages. The problems that have raised concerns about single-asset organisations and how they are derisked will be a source of intense focus over the next years," said Wood.
The confluence of the above factors means that precious metals and the growth of precious metals producers are once again the main focus, rather than ESG and critical minerals, which have fought for investor attention in recent years.
"ESG has waned as we have had time to see that there is no special outperformance for companies with a higher ESG focus. Copper and critical minerals have been a very big theme over the past two years, but they have cycled out to a significant extent. There is a strong focus on precious metals … and now there is less investor distraction," said Wood.
With gold being the hot topic, PMS also focuses on precious metals exploration and development companies, as well as copper. "We are going back to the original orientation of featuring precious metals stories and including a lot of copper and silver companies," Jessica Levental, chief executive of the Precious Metal Summit, told Mining Journal.
The Precious Metals Summit in Beaver Creek, Colorado
Attendence
Some 915 delegates will attend DGF, almost identical to 2023, with attendees drawn 50% from the mining side and 50% from the investor side. This continues to be 20-30% down on the event's best years when it attracts 1200-1300 delegates, although he thinks those days could be around the corner. Wood says GFA consistently attracts 20% new investors yearly, which he attributes to industry turnover. "They are new individuals from the same firms. We have very high-quality attendees from all the major institutions representing the largest funds in the industry, although maybe not with as big teams as in the past due to the curtailment of buy-side travel and expenditure controls," said Wood.
GFA will feature fewer companies this year at 147, compared with 152 in 2023. "We lost eight producers to M&A deals in the last year. The juniors are under a lot of pressure and struggling to get equity financing windows open, so there has been a bit of a drop there, too," said Wood. A year ago, Wood observed that he had lost 26 members in recent years through M&A. With the gold sector heating up, this paring could likely continue as industry consolidation advances.
PMS looks like it will beat the 1400 delegates it registered in 2023, with growth in investor participation, as the number of presenting companies is capped at around 200. Levental anticipates about 6800-7000 meetings will take place this year, via the meeting tool, although hundreds more will likely occur informally.
"Year-over-year investor registrations are up 20% over last year, which is a good, solid reflection on the fact that there are investors in the space looking for opportunities. We are getting enquiries from investors who have stayed away for a few years. They are cycling back into the space. Investors are optimistic about how the future will play out for equities in the precious metals space. There is a lot of expectation that junior equities will perform well," said Levental.
With equity markets still tough for smaller companies and juniors, corporate funding from larger miners has become a lifeline for many. "Corporates have been a significant uptrend in recent years. The C-suite will do an IR track while their corporate development teams will be on-site taking meetings with smaller companies as they have become a primary source of capital for the industry," said Wood.
The Broadmoor in Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA
Content
In line with the gold focus, Wood has programmed keynote presentations from Joseph Cavatoni, market strategist, North America & principal chief executive officer funds at the World Gold Council on the key trends in the gold market, and Nikki Adshead-Bell, director at Cupel Advisory on navigating the World of Mining Equities. Dan McConvey, managing member of Rossport Investments and Wasif Latif, president and chief investment officer of Sarmaya Partners, will also give keynote presentations.
PMS has planned a stellar programme of keynote speakers, including some of the most important commentators in the precious metals space, including Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, managing partner of Incrementum, Florian Grummes, CEO of Midas Touch Consulting and John Hathaway, managing partner at Sprott. Keynotes also include industry thought leaders Rick Rule of Rule Investment Media, Nawojka Wachowiak, portfolio manager of Scotia Global Asset Management, Peter Bell, MD Research at Canaccord Genuity, Michael Gray, partner & co-founder of Agentis Capital Mining Partners and Frank Giustra, president & CEO of Fiore Group.
"A couple of years ago, gold macro specialists John Hathaway and Ronnie discussed the gold environment, and it is looking so different now that I wanted to have them back to discuss how the gold topic has changed. Rick Rule hasn't been here for many years, so it's great to get him back. We have technical analyst Florian Grummes for the first time," said Levental.
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